Android’s Attitude Problem
Over at DaringFireball.net, John Gruber has written an exciting two-part Call-To-Arms to the Android platform. He contends, and I would agree, that there are a large number of disgruntled iPhone users out there, longing for an unlocked, tightly designed, badass mobile platform. While we both see a possible way for Android to compete with the iPhone, we, sadly, differ on its chances to overtake it. I say this with a lot of sadness, as I would love to sell many more copies of my book.
Who’s your daddy?
One of the truly sad things about technology is its lack of idealism. While there are teeming throngs that have worked countless hours to make Linux the wup-ass system it is today, the sad fact is, that while powerful, it is still a second rate consumer product. I say this with all due respect, as I run Ubuntu on one of my laptops but, let’s be honest here, it’s no OS X. (Please send all ‘Linux is teh awesome, you suck’ hate-mails directly to the trash folder of my email address, thanks) The real question, in this case, becomes, can Android be less like Linux and more like Windows? The answer, and I look forward to being really wrong about this, is No. It isn’t, and it can’t be windows. Why? Because Google isn’t making any money from it. Sure, they use it to drive their web-services platform, but they lack the hunger, drive, and downright evilness of a Microsoft, Sun, and especially Apple. In the end, their problem lies, not in their stunning technical ability, but in their attitude.
What Hardware?
I’m not sure if you’ve picked up a G1, or a myTouch, but, to be blunt, they suck. The myTouch is very much an improvement, but not enough of one. The problem with the hardware is twofold. First, the margins on cell phone design and management are so narrow and the technical turnover so high that no one has an incentive to produce an amazing design. I’ll give you an example: aside from the iPhone, when was the last time people were actually excited about a phone hardware design? The RAZR, (curse their stupid lack of vowels) and look what happened to Motorola when they tried to bank on the design. Further, even if you put together a badass looking Android phone, the fact remains that 1 in 3 handsets never see the light of day.
The obstacles start to pile up when you think about it.
1) Design turnover is high (50% of Americans replace their phone each year)
2) Designing a phone is EXPENSIVE. Further, millions of dollars must be spent in debugging and building software for each device. (I know this one from personal experience, I’ve done it)
3) 2/3’s of your designs never see the light of day.
4) Assuming a phone makes it to market, you have to sell several million of them to cover all the money lost on your previous attempts.
These are the obstacles that Samsung, LG, Moto, and everyone else have to content with on a regular basis. What does this lead to? A field that requires mediocrity. You must design for the least common denominator, cut corners, and employ the cheapest programmers you can find. Every time I think about it, it amazes me that there are any actual mobile phones at all.
Yea, well what about Apple?
“Alright Dr. Downer-Pants”, you say, “how the hell does apple pull all this off then?”
Good question.
First, Apple makes it work because they control everything. The operating system is hacked by people who sit next to the guys making the hardware. Normally, if you’re writing software and you have a question about the hardware, it takes between a week to two weeks to answer your question. Further, apple requires no other company, aside from the FCC and AT&T to approve of their platform. Any other company has to run the gauntlet of intergration with any number of 3rd party developers. These are hurdles that Apple doesn’t have to jump, so their costs, time to market, and drag on innovation is all insanely compressed.
Second, Apple has the marketing power of an entire first world country. For Gods sake, reading the press releases after the first iPhone was announced you’d think the Lord himself had ridden against a plague of nazi zombies on the Rapta-dactle of doom.
Third, these things (well, mostly the second) allow Apple an unprecedented amount of leverage over AT&T and any other carrier they want to work with. This allows them to require massive subsidies and back-payments.
So it’s Hopeless?
Of course not. Android, really, needs only one killer hardware design to take off. The question really becomes, who’s going to push for it and how? Every manufacturer under the sun is pushing out their own Android devices. If Motorola can see half the success they achieved with the Razr, it would, I think, present a quantum leap for the industry. Which, as every other technical talking head will remind us, what’s good for Android is good, competition wise, for iPhone users as well.
In the end, making a device that can compete with the iPhone is, for the reasons I’ve outlined above, almost impossible. However, it only has to happen once.





